The influential political publication Poilico claims that according to senior Ukrainian army officers, the military picture is bleak and Russian generals could succeed wherever they decide to focus their upcoming offensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi has also issued grim warnings in recent days. According to Zelenskiy, unless a stalled multi-billion dollar aid package from the US is approved soon, his forces will have to “go back, retreat step by step”. He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling into the hands of the occupiers.
Zelensky’s warnings are apparently part of a broader diplomatic effort to free up much-needed military aid for his forces, which has been in short supply for months, from 155mm artillery shells to Patriot air defense systems and drones.
But the sad truth is that even if the package is approved by the US Congress, the massive supply of weapons may not be enough to prevent a major upheaval on the battlefield.
And as Politico writes, such a failure, especially in the midst of election campaigns in America and Europe, could very well revive Western pressure for peace talks that would obviously favor Russia, leaving the Kremlin free to revive the conflict at a time of its choosing.
Basically, everything now depends on where Russia decides to aim its forces in the offensive that will be launched this summer. And according to senior Ukrainian military officials who served under General Valery Zaluzhny until he was replaced in February, the military picture is bleak.
There is a great risk that the front lines will collapse wherever the Russian generals decide to concentrate their attack. In addition, thanks to the much larger number of troops and the guided air bombs that have been undermining Ukrainian positions for weeks, Russia is likely to be able to “penetrate the front line and hit it in parts,” said one officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
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“A lot of times we just don’t get the weapons systems when we need them — they come when they’re no longer relevant,” said another senior officer, citing the F-16 fighter jets as an example. About a dozen F-16s are expected to enter service this summer after completing basic pilot training. “Every weapon has its right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they will not be suitable for 2024,” he said.
Officers also stressed that they need many, many more people. The country currently does not have enough men on the front lines and this exacerbates the problem of Western support.
Already in December, Zaluzhny publicly called for the mobilization of more troops, estimating that Ukraine needs at least 500,000 more. Since then, the draft of the new law on mobilization has been pushed back and forth.
“We have not only a military crisis, but also a political one,” said one of the officers. While Ukraine avoids large-scale mobilization, “Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a major offensive around August and perhaps sooner.”
