Ukraine is preparing for a wider Russian offensive this summer and plans to destroy the Crimean bridge soon / Article

A new Russian offensive is most likely expected this summer – most likely in August, but possibly sooner, the officers predicted. This is evidenced by several facts – Russia has increased both the number of soldiers in Ukraine, as well as the number of missile and drone attacks, targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and making it difficult to guess in which direction Russia will carry out a larger attack.

And there is a high risk of the front line collapsing regardless of where Russian generals decide to focus their offensive, warned officers who spoke on condition of anonymity and who once served under Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces.

As the main reasons for this, the military mentioned both the much greater numerical superiority of the occupiers on the battlefield, as well as the increasingly frequent use of guided air bombs by Russia, which have been undermining Ukrainian positions for several weeks.

“Nothing can help Ukraine at the moment, because there is no serious technology that could compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops that Russia will most likely use against us. We do not have such technology, and the West does not have it in sufficient numbers either,” said one of the high-ranking military sources in a conversation with “Politico”.

According to him, only the courage and endurance of the Ukrainians, as well as the mistakes of the Russian commanders, can now change the gloomy dynamics.

Also, the military personnel pointed out that every indecision and delay of Ukraine’s allies costs Ukrainians dearly – Russia is closely watching the technologies used in the Ukrainian war and is constantly developing its own in order to refute them.

“Don’t believe the rumors that they (Russia) are just throwing troops into the ‘meat machine,'” added one of the Ukrainian officers interviewed. “Of course they do that too – further maximizing the impact of their numerical superiority – but they’re also learning and improving.”

In the first weeks of the invasion, shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by Britain and the United States came in time to help them save Kyiv, officers said. Likewise, the HIMARS missile launchers were also used, thanks to which in November 2022 the Ukrainians managed to push the occupiers out of Kherson.

“But often we just don’t get the weapons systems when we need them, and they are delivered when they are no longer relevant,” said another senior officer, citing as an example the F-16 fighter jets, which the Ukrainians will be able to enter the war as early as this summer .

“Every weapon has its right time. The F-16s were needed in 2023. They will not be suitable in 2024,” he said.

As the reason for this, the officer cited Russia’s possible readiness to successfully resist their attacks. Namely, in recent months, the Russians have repeatedly fired missiles without exploding warheads from Crimea.

“We couldn’t figure out what they were doing, and then we figured it out – they’re using range sensing,” he said.

The officer explained that Russia has calculated where to best deploy its S-400 missile and radar systems to maximize the area they can cover to target the F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russian logistics centers.

At the moment, Ukraine needs simple traditional weapons the most – howitzers, projectiles, rockets. Also drones, the military said.

The officers stressed that they also needed many, many more men. The country currently does not have enough fighters on the front lines, adding to the already existing problems of insufficient Western support.

At the same time, Ukraine is determined to continue its fight against the invaders, and a third attack on the Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea is “inevitable,” according to Ukrainian intelligence.

High-ranking officials of the Ukrainian military intelligence service stated that after two previous attempts to blow up the bridge, a third attempt is being planned and the Ukrainians are determined to destroy it completely.

According to officials, this could most likely happen in the first half of 2024.

If successful, Moscow would be forced to use roads through occupied southern Ukraine for military supplies. Their route could be through the parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia, which are currently under the control of the occupiers.

Ukrainian officials believe that would significantly impair the Kremlin’s ability to conduct offensive operations as its ground forces advance.

It is likely that the Kerch bridge could be attacked with a long-range missile system “Taurus”.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far refused to supply the specific weapon to Ukraine, arguing that it would be tantamount to his country’s direct participation in a war with Russia and would dangerously escalate the situation on the battlefield.

Meanwhile, pro-Kremlin Russian channels last month released an allegedly intercepted telephone conversation in which high-ranking German military officials discussed the capabilities of the Taurus. Experts estimated that 10 to 20 missiles would probably be enough to destroy the bridge.