The long-awaited US support for Ukraine. Unrest in Georgia. Elections in Croatia / LR1 / / Latvijas Radio

The US Senate has voted 79 to 19 in favor of a long-awaited bill for $95 billion in aid to US allies in their fight against anti-democratic forces. After the extraordinary elections of the Croatian Parliament, the next government could be led by Andrej Plenkovic. But the ruling party in Georgia “Georgia’s Dream” has returned to the idea of ​​adopting a law on the transparency of foreign influence. This led to fierce debate and widespread protests in the streets of Tbilisi.

We discuss these foreign policy issues with the director of the Eastern European Policy Research Center Marie the Hatter and member of the board of the Center for Eastern European Policy Studies, researcher Marci Pigeons.

The ice of isolationism has been broken

The United States Senate voted 79 to 19 in favor of a bill to provide $95 billion in aid to US allies in their fight against anti-democratic forces. Of this amount, eight billion is intended for support to Taiwan and other allies in the East Asia and Pacific region, 26 billion for support to Israel and humanitarian aid to the residents of the Gaza Strip, and almost two-thirds, ie less than 61 billion, for support to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. From this support package for Ukraine, 23 million will be spent on replenishing the arsenals of the American armed forces, allowing, respectively, to put their current reserves at the disposal of Ukraine, 14 billion – on direct purchases of modern military equipment for Ukraine’s needs, 11 billion – on American military activity in the region, which is the basis of the Ukrainian military preparation and cooperation with Ukraine in the field of intelligence, 8 billion – financial support for the functioning of Ukrainian civil structures. President Biden has promised to sign the bill as soon as possible, and the Pentagon has already announced the contents of the supposed first $1 billion aid shipment, which will include air defense systems and artillery ammunition, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and for the first time, the Army’s Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS missiles with 300 kilometer range. As you know, the zero-approved bill was submitted to Congress by President Biden last fall, but it got stuck there because the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson, did not push it for a vote. The main reason was pressure from the conservative wing of the Republican Party, where the most fanatical supporters of ex-president Trump have gathered. Their leader, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, threatened to call for Speaker Johnson’s impeachment if he brought the aid bill to a vote. The leader of the Republican Senate faction, Mitch McConnell, at a press conference after yesterday’s vote, named, in his opinion, the main culprits of the situation. The first is former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who started the demonization of Ukraine and spread this vision among rank-and-file Republicans. The other is ex-president and presidential candidate Donald Trump, who does not have a clear opinion on support for Ukraine, but who resisted compromise even when the Democrats were ready to exchange Republican support for significant concessions in terms of immigration rules. It is significant that House Speaker Johnson pushed the aid package to a vote after meeting with Trump and the latter publicly expressing his support for him. Mitch McConnell expressed hope that the isolationist tendency in the Republican Party had been overcome, and that the party was returning to its Reagan tradition of resisting anti-democratic forces around the world. How much basis there is for such optimism – time will show, presumably, quite soon.

Old masters of Croatian politics are fighting for the top of power

The Democratic Union of Croatia is a conservative, center-right force that has largely dominated national politics since Croatia gained independence in 1990 following the collapse of the then Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The party was founded by the first president of Croatia, Franjo Tudjman, and has formed and led governments with little interruptions throughout these past decades. The current Prime Minister Andrejs Plenkovičs is a record holder in this regard, having been in office since October 2016. Also in the extraordinary elections of the Croatian Parliament – Sabor – held a week ago, the Democratic Union won the largest number of seats: 61 out of 151. This means that the next government could probably be led by Plenkovic and, as before, it would be a minority cabinet with several small parties and the support of some independent deputies. Until now, the coalition partner of the Democratic Union was the Independent Democratic Party of Serbs, which held one ministerial portfolio out of eighteen. According to the Croatian electoral system, ethnic minorities have a separate trans-regional constituency from which eight members are elected in the Sabor, i.e. see three – from the mentioned Serbian party. Since the Democratic Union has lost several seats in these elections, it will be more difficult to gather the necessary support from small parties, so it is assumed that Plenkovic’s party could look for a larger coalition partner or supporter. The second largest parliamentary faction, which groups itself under the name of “Rivers of Truth” around the Democratic Union’s long-time competitor, the Social Democratic Party, cannot become such. This party is represented by the current president of Croatia, Zoran Milanović, who unexpectedly announced a month before the elections that he would participate in them as the leader of the list and candidate for prime minister. However, the constitutional court denied him this, deciding that in that case he should resign from the post of president. Leaving the front stage of the pre-election campaign, Milanovic called for voting for anything but the Democratic Union. The third largest faction with 14 seats has been won by the right-wing nationalist Fatherland Movement, whose support Plenkovic could only get if he refused to cooperate with the Serbian minority party. The nationalists have also declared a categorical refusal to cooperate with the left-green party “Možemo!” – translated as “Varam!”, which has the fifth largest faction with ten seats. The fourth largest force with eleven mandates is the union of conservative and moderately Eurosceptic forces – the “Tilts” party and the Sovereign Party. Both the Left-Greens and the Conservatives have called on everyone to unite to end the rule of the Democratic Union. Observers agree that Prime Minister Plenkovic will have to work hard to get his third cabinet.

What is a dream for some, a nightmare for others

On April 17, Georgia’s ruling party “Georgia’s Dream” returned to the idea of ​​adopting the Law on the Transparency of Foreign Influence, which has already acquired the designation “Russian Law” among the people, after a pause of about a year. In its provisions, the draft law is unpleasantly reminiscent of the notorious Russian law on so-called “foreign agents”. It is one of the cornerstones of the Putin regime’s repressive legislation, first enacted in 2012 in response to mass protests following the 2011 Russian presidential election. Since then, the norms of the law have become much stricter; last time in February, forbidding those declared agents to advertise their activities in any way. Laws very similar to the Kremlin version were subsequently passed in Kyrgyzstan and also in Hungary; they have also appeared in China, India, Cambodia, Uganda and Ethiopia. Attempts by the ruling power of Georgia to introduce similar norms in its country are, according to many, a clear confirmation of the desire to draw the country into the space of Russian political influence, thereby separating it from the space of the European Union. The High Representative of the European Union in the field of foreign policy and security policy, Žuzeps Borels, and the Commissioner for Neighborhood Relations and Enlargement, Oliver Varheji, have already issued a corresponding joint warning statement. Since about four-fifths of Georgians see their country’s future prospects precisely in the context of a united Europe, it is not surprising that the progress of the bill sparked fierce debate and even fist-pumping in Parliament last week and widespread protests on the streets of Tbilisi. 83 members of the ruling faction voted for the adoption of the law in the first reading, the remaining 55 members of the opposition boycotted the vote. On April 17, the number of protesters reached 20,000, smaller-scale demonstrations, such as the Tbilisi University students’ march to the Parliament, are still ongoing. Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has announced that she will veto the bill if it passes the final reading, but “Georgian Dream” has a large enough majority in Parliament to override the president’s veto.

Prepared by Eduards Liniņš.