It must be said right away that this “fake” is not unique to us. We are talking about May 8th, because where Victory Day is celebrated on May 9th, that’s where everything happens for real. So much so that this celebration is already growing into a real mania, which in Russian is called pobedobesiya.
The line between this “truth” and “falsehood” runs according to satisfaction with the end results of this war. Latvia with the results of the Second World War after 8/9/1945 May couldn’t be more pleased. Objectively, Latvia is a big loser of the Second World War, which began on September 1, 1939. Before the war, Latvia was a prosperous, independent country, a full member of the League of Nations, but after the war it became a completely lawless territorial unit of the Stalinist Empire (USSR).
A large number of Eastern European countries were “luckier” a bit more. When they came under the actual control of the USSR, they at least maintained their nominal independence. Western countries could celebrate a full-fledged victory, but the presence of the “Russian bear” in the center of Europe, armed with nuclear missiles in later years, did not allow Western Europe to feel at peace and comfort. Also, a certain betrayal of Eastern Europe, which was given to Stalin, did not allow us to feel completely satisfied.
Interestingly, Stalin was also not satisfied with the results of World War II. Before the war, when he signed an agreement with Hitler on August 23, 1939, he had hoped that at the end of the war (when Germany had bled to death in the war with England and France), by attacking Hitler from behind, he would easily take all of Europe, but in the end he was forced to accept only Eastern Europe. Therefore, during the time of Stalin and later his associate Khrushchev, there was no talk of any “victory”. May 9 was a normal working day. Only with a delay of 20 years, already in Brezhnev’s time (Brezhnev himself had fought at the front), in 1965, May 9 was declared a holiday, and the Victory Day triumphal march began.
Latvia had no favorable options
History does not support what-if judgments. But still, if we want to understand how we should treat the 8th/9th. May, a simple question must be asked – could it have been otherwise? Could Latvia have had a more favorable outcome of the war? Theoretically it could. If Stalin’s partners in the anti-Hitler coalition – Churchill and Roosevelt – had put stricter demands on Stalin to restore the situation ante bellum (on September 1, 1939) after the war, then…
At the same time, it is clear that in practice such demands were not possible in the real situation. Consequently, the situation had progressed in such a way that a favorable outcome of the war was not possible for Latvia under any circumstances. This does not make us pretend that 8./9. May is associated with something positive for Latvia. Arguments that it would be worse/better if Hitler won are of the same nonsensical “what if” series.
We should talk about what is/was, not what would be/wouldn’t be. The Second World War brought a long and difficult occupation to Latvia (the lives of several generations were literally broken), and this occupation ended only in the first half of the nineties of the last century (Russian troops left Latvia only in 1994).
The vision of the desired world order is different
Why talk about it again now? Because in Russia, May 9 is the day of the Victory religious cult, and according to this religious cult, the Kremlin has made it its goal to restore the world order that was established in 1945 and which (in Moscow’s view) was destroyed by the “traitor” Gorbachev, Yeltsin & Co. with Gaidar and Chubais in the lead. It should be emphasized that the achievement of this goal is supported not only by Putin and a handful of his fellow runners, but by the broad masses of the Russian people.
The situation in the West is fundamentally different. There, politicians on May 8th, by performing formal, ritualistic actions, think that they are honoring long-dead victims and thus commemorating history. But in fact, it is not about history, but about today. Further. We are talking about tomorrow, because May 9 in Russia is not a day of remembrance for tens of millions of dead citizens of the USSR, but for imperial might. About the need to restore this greatness, taking revenge for 1989-1991. annual losses in the Cold War.
It is in this aspect that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ultimatum expressed to the West shortly before it on December 15, 2021 – to withdraw NATO’s eastern border to the borders of 1997 should be evaluated. That is, to restore Russia’s sphere of influence in 1945-1985. within a year.
Putin has never minced these demands. The West, on the other hand, pretends that they have not heard these demands and that they have never been expressed. The West consistently pretends that the war in Ukraine is a dispute over individual pieces of land. It would only be necessary to agree on who owns who, and the war could end. It is only necessary to bring the parties to the negotiating table, to agree on the conditions under which these “disputed” territories come under the control of one or the other, and the matter is done. We can go back to the same peaceful life we had before February 24, 2022.
We do not want to change the regime in the Kremlin
French President Emmanuel Macron, who allowed himself to speak quite freely this year about the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine (with reservations and without the slightest specificity), at the same time, just meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, clearly and without reservation declared: “We are not at war with Russia or Russia people, and we don’t want to change the regime in Moscow.” In other words, we have nothing against Putin, let him live and rule in his territory, but just don’t disturb us too much.
The fact that Macron read this statement in the presence of the Chinese dictator is also not accidental. In this way, Macron is trying to say that we, the West, can accept the authoritarian style of leadership that exists in other countries, as long as it stays at home. Macron is trying to give a hint: do what you want within the borders of your countries, but do not show your despotism in the international arena.
Xi Jinping did not say anything in the spirit of Eastern diplomacy, but naturally thought: what is this small man with a long nose, that he will rebuke or teach us – a country with a history of six thousand years. In parentheses, it should be noted that in China, the most characteristic feature of Europeans is a large nose, and this 6,000-year-long history is mentioned more often than Lenin in the times of the USSR.
This statement by Macron, which, unlike his statements about the possible sending of troops to Ukraine, did not cause the slightest objection either at home or in other European capitals, shows only one thing. The West does not understand, or rather does not want to understand, that the issue is no longer about Ukraine, nor even about the Baltics, Poland or NATO.
Who owns the future?
The question is more serious – which system will prove to be more sustainable in the 21st century and emerge from this global turbulence as the winner? Democracy or autocracy? If until recently this question seemed almost absurd, because the answer was as if obvious: of course, democracy, because history never goes backwards, now this answer is no longer so clear.
An axiom has turned into a theorem that requires proof. If Xi Jinping doesn’t already indicate: demonstrate the superiority of your system in action, then Putin almost demands it: prove, for once, that your “deep concerns”, “red lines” and “he will pay dearly for this” are something with which must be counted, not empty words shouted to the sky.
Targeted destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and nuclear blackmail against the West are not Putin’s only weapons. Germany and the Czech Republic have recalled their ambassadors over cyber attacks. The airline “Finnair” has canceled flights from Helsinki to Tartu, because GPS navigation signals are being disturbed in the Baltic airspace. The October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the destabilization of the situation in the Middle East are from the same arsenal of tools for creating chaos.
Currently, Western security services are concerned with ensuring security at the Paris Olympic Games and during the upcoming European Football Championship in Germany. If these major sports events take place without incident, then only the security services of the respective countries can be thanked for that, and not the fact that Macron once again assured: “we do not want to change the regime in Moscow”. Even if these words of Macron will soften Putin’s heart (ironic) and he will give the order not to carry out any hybrid war operations, then it will only show clearly who is in the position of strength and who is in the position of supplicant.
So that there are no misunderstandings. I am sure that the military, economic, technological, cultural superiority of the Western democracies is still huge (the whole world watches Hollywood and the European Champions League, not Bollywood and the Chinese football championship), and in the event of a real conflict, the West would emerge victorious from such a conflict, but any theoretical the assumption must be confirmed in practice.
So far, there is nothing to suggest that Putin or Xi should bow to the “stronger”. The craziest thing is that the rest of the world is watching this confrontation between Putin/Xi and Biden/Macron/Scholz. It is not said that the people there look respectfully at Western leaders and would like to emulate them.
We can already repeat that we must not allow new, destructive and cruel wars, and hope that every year we will be able to celebrate May 8 as the end of the last big war that has touched us with its dark wing. Unfortunately, not all conflicts can be resolved with speeches, appeals to reason, even expediency.
Optimism is the fact that at the moment there is confidence that in the event of an attack, the Latvian army will not surrender without a fight, as was the case in 1940. This non-resistance once made it easier for Churchill and Roosevelt to hand us over to Stalin. True, in the reality of that time, such resistance would hardly have given Latvia anything.
However, today’s clearly expressed willingness to resist may cool the heated minds of some in the Kremlin. Therefore, strengthening our defense capabilities and building closer ties with NATO is central to the commemoration of World War II Day in Europe. For this reason, it can be somewhat pretended that May 8 is also associated with something bright for us. Not forgetting what our real story is.
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