History of 3 seeds vs. 14 seeds in March Madness

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3 in men’s NCAA tournament play, with Oakland becoming the most recent surprise in the 2024 tournament, when the Golden Grizzlies stunned Kentucky. While 3s have generally had their way with 14s since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the lower seed has won enough to catch our attention.

Here’s everything you need to know about 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds in March Madness.

History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March Madness

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985, giving them a 23-133 record all-time. That equates to a 14.74 win percentage.

Here are all of the times it’s ever happened.

**14 vs. 3 March Madness upsets**
Year	Result	Score
1986	Cleveland State def. Indiana	83-79
1986	Arkansas Little-Rock def. Notre Dame	90-83
1987	Austin Peay def. Illinois	68-67
1988	Murray State def. NC State	78-75
1989	Wall def. Stanford	80-78
1990	Northern Iowa def. Missouri	74-71
1991	Xavier def. Nebraska	89-84
1992	ETSU def. Arizona	87-80
1995	Old Dominion def. Villanova	89-81
1995	Weber State def. Michigan State	79-72
1997	Chattanooga def. Georgia	73-70
1998	Richmond def. South Carolina	62-61
1999	Weber State def. North Carolina	76-74
2005	Bucknell def. Kansas	64-63
2006	Northwestern State def. Iowa	64-63
2010	Ohio def. Georgetown	97-83
2013	Harvard def. New Mexico	68-62
2014	Mercer def. Duke	78-71
2015	UAB def. Iowa State	60-59
2015	Georgia State def. Baylor	57-56
2016	Stephen F. Austin def. West Virginia	70-56
2021	Abilene Christian def. Texas	53-52
2024	Oakland def. Kentucky	80-76

Some more tidbits:

In 20 of the 39 years since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seeds.
Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
From 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Three of the last five 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State in 2015, Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were decided by one point.
The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA’s win in 2016 and when Ohio topped Georgetown 97-83 in 2010.
Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime. That was Old Dominion-Villanova in 1995, which required three extra sessions.
A 14 seed beat a 3 seed for seven straight years between 1986-92. That streak was snapped in 1993.
There was a four-year stretch between 2013-16 where a 14 seed upset a 3.
No school that’s earned a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed more than once. On the flip side, Weber State has won two opening round games as a 14 seed: 1995 vs. Michigan State and 1999 vs. North Carolina.

How much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?

A 14-3 upset is two times more likely than a 15-2 upset. Eleven 15 seeds have pulled off the upset since 1985.

Here’s the full list:

**15-2 upset**
Year	Result	Score
1991	Richmond def. Syracuse	73-69
1993	Santa Clara def. Arizona	64-61
1997	Coppin State def. South Carolina	78-65
2001	Hampton def. Iowa State	58-57
2012	Lehigh def. Duke	75-70
2012	Norfolk State def. Missouri	86-84
2013	Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown	78-68
2016	Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State	90-81
2021	Oral Roberts def. Ohio State	75-72 (OT)
2022	Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky	85-79 (OT)
2023	Princeton def. Arizona	59-55

How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?

Teams on the 13 seed line have 33 wins in the opening round, meaning it’s happened 10 more times than the 14-over-3 variety. Here’s the full list of 13s that have topped 4s:

**13-seed upsets over 4-seeds**
Year	Result	Score
1985	Navy def. LSU	78-55
1987	Missouri State def. Clemson	65-60
1987	Xavier def. Missouri	70-69
1988	Richmond def. Indiana	72-69
1989	Middle Tennessee def. Florida State	97-83
1991	Penn State def. UCLA	74-69
1992	Southwestern Louisiana def. Oklahoma	87-83
1993	Southern def. Georgia Tech	93-78
1995	Manhattan def. Oklahoma	77-67
1996	Princeton def. UCLA	43-41
1998	Valparaiso def. Ole Miss	70-69
1999	Oklahoma def. Arizona	61-60
2001	Indiana State def. Oklahoma	70-68
2001	Kent State def. Indiana	77-73
2002	UNC Wilmington def. USC	93-89
2003	Tulsa def. Dayton	84-71
2005	Vermont def. Syracuse	60-57
2006	Bradley def. Kansas	77-73
2008	Wall def. Vanderbilt	83-62
2008	San Diego def. UConn	70-69
2009	Cleveland State def. Wake Forest	84-69
2010	Murray State def. Vanderbilt	66-65
2011	Morehead State def. Louisville	62-61
2012	Ohio def. Michigan	65-60
2013	La Salle def. Kansas State	63-61
2016	Hawaii def. California	77-66
2018	Buffalo def. Arizona	89-69
2018	Marshall def. Wichita State	81-75
2019	UC Irvine def. Kansas State	70-64
2021	North Texas def. Purdue	78-69 (OT)
2021	Ohio def. Virginia	62-58
2023	Furman def. Virginia	68-67
2024	Yale def. Auburn	78-76