Operations likely to be covert: Four potential threats from Belarus

Military analysts have considered four possible threat scenarios from the side of Belarus, NBS major, National Guard staff officer Jānis Slaidiņš told the TV24 program “Current war in Ukraine”.

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One of them could be the involvement of the armed forces of Belarus in the war against Ukraine.

“Now it is already clear that the military industry of Belarus provides a lot for the needs of the Russian armed forces. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that in the future the armed forces of Belarus – not all, but some units – special operations forces, will be involved in some limited military operation in Russian uniforms. This will avoid a response from Ukraine. The operations will most likely be secret,” Slaidins admitted.

The second possible threat from Belarus could be various measures on the border of Ukraine aimed at destabilizing the situation.

“These will not be operations inside Ukraine, but creating tension at the border. The main task of these measures is to attract Ukrainian forces to the border of Belarus, which is about 1,000 km, in order to prevent the redeployment of Ukrainian units to the east,” he explained.

Slaidins believes that this is the most realistic scenario of all those mentioned by military analysts.

The third option is to create a crisis on the external borders of the European Union and NATO. For example, to implement another migrant crisis: “It would not be a problem for the Russians to take away a few tens of thousands from warm countries”.

Also, of course, exercises would be held continuously at the borders of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.

The fourth scenario envisages the involvement of Belarus in the Baltic and Polish space. Slaidins, however, believes that this scenario is the least likely, “because without a strong Russia, Belarus will do absolutely nothing”.

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