Since the spring of 2022, the proportion of residents who feel safe because they do not feel a direct military threat to Latvia has significantly decreased, while the residents’ sense of ignorance and powerlessness will also decrease, according to the publicly available study commissioned by the State Chancellery.
When researching the citizens’ opinion about the threat of military war, a third or 34.6% of the population of Latvia aged between 18 and 75 stated that they feel safe because Latvia is protected by membership in the NATO alliance. On the other hand, about a fifth or 22% of the population stated this year that they feel safe because Latvia invests in defense and security. At the same time, the feeling of a military threat is growing. The research indicates that in the spring period of 2022, 39.2% of respondents agreed that they feel safe because Latvia is not under direct military threat, but in March of this year, only 32.8% of respondents agreed with this statement.
16.9% of the population believe the Russian authoritarian leader Vladimir Putin’s statement that he has no plans to invade Latvia, while 14.5% are considering moving to another country because they are afraid of Russia’s threats to Latvia.
Less than a fifth or 14.5% agree that a war between Russia and NATO is inevitable in the next few years, while a tenth or 11.5% of the population agree that a Russian attack on one of the Baltic states is inevitable in the next few years.
The survey also collected data on the residents’ feelings regarding the war in Ukraine. “Kantar” indicates that a little more than two years have passed since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine, so the proportion of the population who have experienced various unpleasant sensations during the last week, compared to the previous study in March 2022, shortly after the start of the war, is dropped significantly. The only feeling that has significantly increased compared to the spring of 2022 is indifference, which one in seven residents has experienced in the last week. The indicator increased from 10% to 13.2%.
However, several indicators have also fallen significantly. Half, or 51.5%, of the respondents surveyed in March stated that during the last week they had experienced fear about their future, that of their family and the country, 42.4% – experienced a feeling of unpredictability and ignorance, 42% – fatigue (a new feeling), but 39, 9% – a feeling of powerlessness. Two years ago, all these indicators were significantly higher. In the spring of 2022, fear about the future was 63.5%, the feeling of ignorance – 61.6%, and the feeling of powerlessness – 59.1%.
A third (33-34.1%) of the population experienced disgust, anger, disappointment and sadness during the last week. Previously, 51.5% felt disgust, 46% anger, 44.2% disappointment and 56.5% sadness.
According to the survey data, the fear of the population is also decreasing. A fourth part or 27.3% of the population experienced the fear of a nuclear war during the last week, while a fifth part or 21.1% – fear of foreign troops invading Latvia. Previously, the fear of nuclear war was felt by 48.1%, and the fear of invasion by foreign troops – 46%. However, as in the spring of 2022, younger residents – 18-34-year-old residents, pupils, students, as well as Latvians – have experienced this fear relatively more often. Constant anxiety and inability to control anxiety is felt by 20% of respondents.
When asked to express their opinion on the celebration of different days, Latvian residents most often (80.5%) agree that the Republic of Latvia’s Independence Restoration Day on May 4 and the day of the convening of the Constitutional Assembly on May 1 should be especially celebrated in Latvia (56.2%). At the same time, support for the fact that Latvia should celebrate Europe Day on May 9 and the Day of the Destruction of Nazism on May 8 has significantly increased. Support for Europe Day celebrations increased by 5.3 percentage points during the year – from 48.5% to 53.8%, while support for the celebration of the Day of the Destruction of Nazism on May 8 increased by 8.5 percentage points – from 42.6% to 51.1% .
In addition, residents believe that the 20th anniversary of Latvia’s entry into the European Union on May 1 (43.8%), the Victory Day over the Nazi regime in Germany on May 9 (41.3%), the 20th anniversary of Latvia’s entry into NATO should be especially celebrated in Latvia on March 29 (37.4%), as well as the 75th anniversary of NATO’s establishment on April 4 (27.0%).
The authors of the study indicate that there are significant differences in the opinion of the residents regarding the celebration of different days, depending on the language spoken in the family. Residents whose family speaks Latvian more often than residents who speak Russian in their family believe that the Independence Restoration Day of the Republic of Latvia on May 4, the convening day of the Constituent Assembly of the Republic of Latvia on May 1, and the 20th anniversary of Latvia’s accession should be specially celebrated In the European Union on May 1, the 20th anniversary of Latvia’s accession to NATO on March 29, as well as the 75th anniversary of NATO’s establishment on April 4.
On the other hand, residents with a Russian-speaking family more often agree that the Day of the Destruction of Nazism on May 8 and Victory Day over the Nazi regime in Germany on May 9 should be specially celebrated. Similar to the spring 2023 study, the biggest differences are observed in the opinion regarding the celebration of the Victory Day over the Nazi regime in Germany on May 9: 22% of the population with Latvian-speaking family members recognized this day as particularly noteworthy, and 73% of the Russian-speaking population.
In order for the war in Ukraine to end, most of the time Latvian residents fully support or rather support the statement that Western countries must do more to help Ukraine. Residents believe that Western countries should impose stronger sanctions against Russia (56.3%), Western countries should provide Ukraine with all the weapons it needs to drive out Russian forces (56.2%), Western countries should stop all import and export transactions with Russia ( 53.1%), Latvia must stop any import and export transactions with Russia (50.9%). About half or 51.9% of the respondents believe that Ukraine and Russia should immediately start peace talks and compromise. Relatively less people agree that Western countries should send their troops to Ukraine (24%), as well as that Ukraine should give up territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea (21.7%).
Also on the issue of actions to end the war in Ukraine, there are significant differences in the opinions of the population, depending on the language spoken in the family. Residents whose families speak Latvian more often than residents whose families speak Russian believe that Western countries need to do more. On the other hand, the Russian-speaking population more often agrees that Ukraine and Russia should immediately start peace talks, reach compromises, and that Ukraine should give up the territories occupied by Russia.
The biggest differences can be seen in the opinion that the Western countries should establish stricter sanctions against Russia. 81% of residents with Latvian-speaking family members support stricter sanctions against Russia, and 18% of Russian-speakers.
Compared to the study conducted in November 2023, the number of residents who indicated that they support the admission of refugees from the Ukrainian war in Latvia has increased by 8.1 percentage points. Last year they were 52%, and this year 60.1%. A little less than half or 46.5% of the population support Ukraine’s admission to the EU, as well as Ukraine’s admission to NATO. However, compared to the November 2023 study, the proportion of the population who support Ukraine’s admission to NATO has dropped significantly, as last year it was supported by 51.5% of the population.
The majority, or 63.6%, of the population of Latvia aged 18-75 have indicated that they want Ukraine to win the war against Russia, while 47.7% of respondents agree that Ukraine can defeat Russia. More than half of the population, or 56.3%, have indicated that they will support Ukraine until its victory over Russia, and also believe that by helping Ukraine, we protect the European Union (54.6%) and Latvia (53.6%) from war . These statements in the survey are new and not comparable to previous research.
47.5% trust information from Latvian media about the war in Ukraine, 47.4% trust information from Latvian state institutions about the war in Ukraine, and 43% trust information from Western media. About a tenth or 8.4% of the population have stated that they trust the information of the Russian state media about the war in Ukraine.
A little more than two fifths or 44.7% of the population admit that they are tired of news about the Russian war in Ukraine, while 43% do not want to know anything about it.
The research took place this year, from March 13 to 15, and was conducted by SIA “Kantar”. 1000 respondents aged between 18 and 75 took part in the survey. The study cost the State Chancellery 3110 euros without value added tax.
