Purdue vs. Gonzaga expert picks: Spread, odds, projections for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 game

The Athletic has live coverage of the March Madness Sweet 16 matchups.

Only two teams have made the Sweet 16 in five of the last seven seasons – the Purdue Boilermakers and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. After both teams steamrolled their way through the Round of 32, they are now set to face each other in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, with the Boilermakers modestly favored.

It will be a rematch for top-seeded Purdue (31-4) and No. 5 Gonzaga (27-7) after the Boilermakers beat the Bulldogs 73-63 in the Maui Invitational on Nov. 20. Purdue center Zach Edey had 25 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks in the win. It was Edey’s second career win over the Bulldogs including an 84-66 win in 2022, scoring 23 points with seven boards and three blocks.

Purdue may have Gonzaga’s number recently, but the Bulldogs are in familiar territory deep in the tourney. Gonzaga hasn’t missed the Big Dance in 25 years and is in the Sweet 16 for a ninth consecutive year, the longest current streak in the nation. Gonzaga has advanced to the Elite Eight in two of the last three seasons (2021, 2023), while Purdue hasn’t made it that far since 2019, when Edey was a senior in high school.

Both teams put on dominant displays in the first and second rounds. The Boilermakers and Bulldogs each won both their first-weekend games by more than 20 points. Purdue beat Grambling State 78-50 in the first round before taking out Utah State 106-67. Gonzaga opened things up with an 86-65 victory over McNeese State, followed by an 89-68 beatdown of Kansas.

After getting bounced in the first round last year, Edey has been a bully for the Boilermakers this tournament. The 7-foot-4 senior from Canada is averaging 27 points, 17.5 rebounds, and three blocks per game through the first two rounds. As a team, the Boilermakers have out-rebounded their opponents in the tournament 97-49.

Gonzaga had five players reach double-digits in both tournament games. Senior forward Anton Watson led the way over Kansas with 21 points, followed by junior guard Nolan Hickman with 17. The Bulldogs shot 50 percent (18-for-36) from beyond the arc in the first two rounds.

What: Midwest Region, Sweet 16

Tipoff time: 7:39 pm ET Friday

TV: CBS

Location: Detroit

Purdue vs. Gonzaga odds

Odds are from BetMGM and update live. Find the best ticket deals on StubHub to see your favorite team.

Expert picks

Model projection: Purdue by 5.5, total 154

See all of Austin Mock’s projections for the Sweet 16

Players to watch

Purdue

Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
Braden Smith, sophomore guard, first-team All-Big Ten