To what extent is the war that the Putin regime is currently waging in Ukraine related to the principled survival of that regime? In the first year of the war, the prevailing view was that if Putin fails to implement his plans in Ukraine, his regime will be over. The Libyan believes that now it is no longer a universally relevant assumption.
Soviet thinking still prevails in Russia
“If we look back, the preparation and entry into this great war has taken place for a very long time. It is not a story of one, two, five, even ten years. This is the entire trend of Putin’s reign – to recover what is “due to Russia” according to historical regulations, if you can say so, “according to historical justice”, assessed the Libyan.
The researcher expressed that last year, when the whole world followed the march of the military group “Wagner” and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to Moscow, many thought that something would change a lot in Russia, but hopes quickly turned out to be in vain.
“It was demonstrated pretty quickly that Putin, whatever he looks like and whatever the rumors are, is sane and in good health and strategic thinking, if you can say so.
No matter how hard it is for us to admit it, Russia has really adapted to war conditions much more successfully and efficiently at the moment. The story that “it’s better with a half-naked bottom, but with a victory flag in your hands” works very effectively,” Lībietis said.
Contrary to what we tend to hope in the West, Russia has not moved too far from Soviet thinking and attitudes towards war during these years.
Russian soldiers are preparing for the “Victory Day” parade in Moscow
Photo: EPA, YURI KOCHETKOV
“Our thinking or hope that Russia has developed, moved forward during these years, and no longer really has that Soviet “hooray” patriotism, “all the strength for victory” – that’s what they still look like. That’s not the case , in my opinion, does not indicate a weakening of Putin’s position,” Libietis admitted.
The ruling regime “feeds” the repressive apparatus
In addition, the same scenario exists in both Russia and Belarus, the researcher pointed out, and any attempts to stop the positions of the political elite are impossible without really wide support of security structures and the military.
“In both of these countries, the regimes have been working for years to promote the loyalty of security personnel. In the same Belarus, it is apartments, better educational conditions, health care for all security personnel and their families. In Russia, it is very similar. Being in the national guard or the armed forces there are security guarantees in this otherwise perhaps not so favorable economic model for many,” Lībietis explained.
A propaganda poster in St. Petersburg promises big rewards to those who join the Russian army and go to war in Ukraine
Photo: AFP, OLGA MALTSEVA
On the other hand, people who are not involved in the security systems of the state have their livelihoods to think about, and therefore do not choose to jeopardize their income and quality of life in order to confront political power.
“The dominance of the stomach over the head, or, in Weidenbaum’s words, “the stomach is the highest God, and everyone is the closest to himself” – this is unfortunately very pronounced in this country,” said the Libietis.
The researcher assessed that the perception of a large part of Russian society is based on this position. There is no thought of democratic values or ideas, because the material condition is decisive.
Russia cannot be changed from outside
On the other hand, increasingly cruel means of intimidation are used against those who would be willing to sacrifice material benefits in the name of the idea of freedom, for example, even revenge against loved ones.
“In the West, the awareness that should have existed quite a long time ago is beginning to emerge, that nothing will change rapidly and soon, and nothing can be changed by external forces. Many once had great hope for Khodorkovsky, many had hope for Kasparov, even more hope for Navalny, ” explained the Libyan.
He acknowledged that Navalny did a good job of telling the world about things that no one in the West could even imagine could happen. For a while, he probably also managed to change something in a small part of the society in Russia, but as you can see – when there is no leader, there is no movement either.
“You can’t change anything from the outside. Emigrated people who are now living in exile, both in Russia and Belarus, can continue to talk and pay attention to the issue as such, but they can’t change what’s happening inside. On the one hand, it’s painful to realize that .
I also see that the Belarusian activists and former oppositionists I know passionately and persistently travel around the world for years, give lectures, tell stories and speak, and you understand that this can change our thinking, but it will not change anything in Russia or Belarus,” explained Libietis.
Will the West be ready to continue supporting Ukraine?
Also, in his opinion, it is quite naive to discuss and place hopes on the fact that the direction of Russia could be rapidly changed by a successor of Putin, if Putin suddenly left this world.
“If the leader dies now, the war will not end, the war will continue.
Just as Navalny would not have said at one time that now we are ending everything and withdrawing. No one, not even the most democratic Russian politician, could say – well, now we are withdrawing, we are giving Crimea back. That kind of thinking will not be accepted now, and that kind of thinking will not be accepted for another, two generations absolutely,” Lībietis said.
Any possible future scenario in Russia largely depends on two countries – Ukraine and the USA, the researcher said.
“No matter how often there are already some thoughts or discussions about peace talks, truce talks, that decision has to be made by Ukraine. No matter how much we talk about attacks, counter-attacks or needs and capabilities, it is again up to Ukraine to decide as much as they can, what they can do, how the mood is changing within the Ukrainian society itself – whether it is happening or not, whether fatigue is setting in or not. We have to take into account what is coming out of Ukraine,” Libietis said.
The researcher emphasized that the leadership of Ukraine is currently doing everything possible to achieve the best result. The question is – how well will the West hear it? How much will the West be able to help if the US can’t do it as much as it does now?
“The question is – how much will we help here in Europe? At the same time, not forgetting the fact that in this whole situation we have to think about ourselves as well,” Lībietis said.
