Political observer and military expert Alexander Kovalenko expressed his opinion on the time when the war in Ukraine will end in an interview with the Ukrainian YouTube channel “News Factory”, dialog.ua writes.
“Does anyone really expect the war to end in 2024? The war will continue for a long time,” said the military expert.
According to Kovalenko, if we take into account the situation with the Russian military-industrial complex and aid to Ukraine at least at the level that the United States will provide this year, the war could last at least another two to three years.
“But Russia is not as effective now as it will be in 2022,” the analyst emphasized.
“Let’s look at a fact as an example – in 2022. Russian artillery fired 80,000 rounds per day and rapidly advanced, occupying areas.
In 2024, they are 10,000 rounds per day, they have been occupying Avdiivka for five months, and they are still trying to take villages, not cities.”
According to the military expert, after a year and a half, the intensity of hostilities will decrease even more – the Russian army will have more human resources and less mechanized resources, perhaps even fewer shells per day – it all depends on the supply factor of Iran and the DPRK.
However, the expert emphasizes that the overall level of combat capabilities will definitely decrease, as more and more equipment in Russia comes from Soviet-style warehouses and storage centers, and their repair will require increasing costs.
