Currently, Russian occupation forces are taking advantage of the temporary weakening of Ukraine caused by the delay in military aid since the second half of last year and have stepped up their offensive. The U.S. has already approved a new large-scale delivery of aid, but it will take time to prepare and successfully deploy it to the front lines.
One of the possible options for the further development of the war envisages supplying the Ukrainian forces with Western weapons and temporarily stopping the Russians within the current borders. After Russia finished building new military units, a new phase of the Russian offensive would begin. The Ukrainian army believes that the real time for this would be August-September 2024.
The second option: Russian forces will not stop the offensive, despite changes in Ukraine’s defense capabilities, and will continue to pressurize, throwing newly formed units to the front. Then the culmination of offensive activities would be reached in the second half of summer or early September.
The third option envisages the possibility that Russia could attack in one of the currently “inactive” directions, which could happen already at the end of May or during the summer. At the same time, Russia can continue its offensive in directions where Ukrainian defense lines are currently breached. Experts from the US Institute of Military Studies also point to Russia’s intentions to launch a new massive offensive in the direction of Kharkiv. They believe that the Russians will not have enough strength to take the city of a million, but an attack on Kharkiv would force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other critical points on the front.
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