On the quiet areas and the “great unknowns” on the Ukrainian front – is this the calm before the storm from Russia?

Donetsk, Kramatorsk, Severodonetsk – here the combat actions are minimal, there are some clashes, back and forth shootings, but there are no serious acts of war there. Is this the calm before the storm? This is an interesting question, admits Igor Rajev, a reserve colonel of the National Armed Forces.

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In the TV 24 program “About the war in Ukraine with Igor Rajev”, he recalls the situation a week ago. “Aviation delivered all the blows basically near Apdzivka and near Ucherekina. Aviation was transferred here, bombing, yes, attacks, but battles? No battle! There are trials, but no serious action.”

Another area that everyone is talking about is the Kharkiv-Sumi direction. There is also one big unknown here, because there is a lot of talk.

Russia has concentrated its forces there. The new commander is appointed, the new symbol is given to this direction. There are reports that forces are moving towards the border, but it’s all just news, we see no photos, no video, no documentary evidence that this is actually happening. So for now it looks more like distraction and scaring people, that’s how Rajev describes the situation in this region.

Everything is very bad in Kharkiv – constant shelling: all the time both bombs and rockets, practically without stopping. As the colonel points out, in this way the Russian army terrorizes the local population so that they are forced to leave these territories – if there is an attack on Kharkiv, then it will be easier to fight.

This threat is serious if any serious units of Russian troops appear there, because the Ukrainians will not give up Kharkiv without a fight. But it must be understood that the Russian forces are currently in Donbass and Zaporizhzhia, but there are not many forces near Kharkiv.

The big unknown is that there is no information about how big the Russian contingent is here. Therefore, until there is an answer to this question, to talk about whether this is a distraction and a silent concentration of forces – it can be both one and the other. Rajev admits that the Ukrainians know something, but the available information is too general for conclusions.

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