A significant increase in electricity consumption is expected in Latvia in the coming decade, according to the study

A significant increase in electricity consumption is expected in Latvia in the coming decade, according to the study
A significant increase in electricity consumption is expected in Latvia in the coming decade, according to the study
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“In Latvia, in the last 10 years, the average annual consumption of electricity has been 7 TWh, and currently it has a tendency to decrease. At the same time, looking at the ambitions of developers of renewable resources power stations, the amount of power requested from the transmission network is five times higher than Latvia’s maximum consumption,” says Rolands Irklis, chairman of the board of AST.

In order to realize the optimistic scenario mentioned in the study, that is, Latvia’s electricity consumption would double, a faster development of renewable energy projects and support mechanisms for the development of Power-to-X (P2X) technologies (for example, the use of hydrogen in electricity production) are necessary.

Everyone would benefit from this – both the developers of renewable resources and the economy, which would promote new business opportunities, as well as the society as a whole, which would get lower electricity prices, says Rolands Irklis, chairman of the board of AST.

Although there are differences between the countries examined in the study, in general, an increase in electricity consumption is expected in all of them in the long term. Forecasts were made by KPMG experts, assuming that the development of P2X technologies will be economically justified from 2030.

Until 2029, consumption growth is expected to be moderate, which will be stimulated by electromobility, i.e. the use of electricity in transport, the use of electricity in heating, as well as a general increase in well-being, while the factors slowing down consumption will be the improvement of energy efficiency, the deterioration of the demographic situation and the development of microgeneration. As a result, consumers will receive less electricity from the grid, preferring local generation solutions such as solar panels, the study said.

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The study analyzed possible consumption trends in five segments – industry, public and commercial sectors, households, transport and energy, evaluating them according to eight factors that can change the demand for electricity – demographic trends, changes in energy efficiency, the amount of microgeneration, welfare level, electromobility, heating in solutions, as well as in the development of technologies that allow converting electricity into fuel, or P2X. The research costs are 100% covered by the funding granted by the European Union RePowerEU.

“The methodology proposed in the KPMG study by an independent expert will allow AST to more accurately prepare a capacity adequacy assessment, which AST carries out by developing the annual assessment report, which annually evaluates electricity production and consumption trends and determines the future development of Latvia’s electricity system for at least a 10-year period,” says Irklis.

The research has evaluated the development possibilities of P2X, especially hydrogen, technology in Latvia.

“Although there is great uncertainty regarding the development of these technologies, we can already see interest in investing in them now. These technologies will significantly affect the development of electricity consumption in Latvia in the long term. The results of the study will allow us to plan the capacity adequacy of the Latvian electricity system even more precisely, as well as to evaluate and justify the development projects of the electricity transmission network,” emphasizes Arnis Daugulis, a member of the AST board.

The article is in Latvian

Tags: significant increase electricity consumption expected Latvia coming decade study

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