By attacking the Kharkiv region, Russia is testing Ukraine’s forces, Maris Andzhan, director of the Geopolitical Research Center and a visiting researcher at Harvard University, told LETA.
He stated that it is difficult to judge how dangerous this attack is at the moment. Andzhan believes that the Russians are currently testing Ukraine’s defense lines and preparing for a possible summer offensive. The expert emphasized that the situation has changed. If a year ago the international community expected a Ukrainian counterattack, now many expect a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine in the summer.
“It is likely that Russia will definitely attack Kharkiv. It must be said that it is done all the time – with rocket and drone attacks. Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine and Russia will definitely try to get it as a ‘prize’, because so far Russia has not had any particularly significant success there hasn’t been,” said the director of the Geopolitical Research Center.
According to him, the “prize” was also Mariupole – the most recognizable populated cent that was captured, but after that the Russians occupied all kinds of small towns and villages. A visiting scholar at Harvard University said that Russia will try to gain a greater strategic advantage. He also called for the expectation that the summer will be difficult for Kharkiv, as airstrikes will continue to make the city uninhabitable. The Russians will try to disrupt the supply of electricity, water and natural gas.
“Obviously, capturing such a large city will not be easy. We have already seen that the Russians wipe it off the face of the earth before capturing it. This is the story of Mariupol, where they made it uninhabitable with terrible attacks, then the Russians captured the city with what there was still left. It must be admitted that Kharkiv has a different scale,” said Andzhan.
He assumed that the battle for Kharkiv could last months, maybe even years. According to the director of the Center for Geopolitics Research, many thought that Russia’s war in Ukraine would be short, but wars can last years, decades, maybe even longer in different intensities. According to him, Ukrainians are ready for various scenarios regarding Kharkiv.
“Of course, it’s one thing to protect uninhabited areas in Eastern Ukraine, it’s quite another to protect such a huge city with such a large population as Kharkiv. There will definitely be a need for more and more air defense, more resources. I’m sure that the Ukrainians understand well what the Russians are planning and are ready for it. The question is how much equipment and ammunition the Ukrainians have to defend themselves,” explained a visiting researcher from Harvard University.
Asked whether it could be a trick move – with a land attack on Kharkiv to divert attention from another place, Andzhan did not rule out such a possibility. He believes that Russia is looking in the direction of Kharkiv, because such symbolic cities are not “available” in other directions. According to the expert, the Russians are really trying to claim something, because the leader of the regime, Vladimir Putin, has been inaugurated for another term, there is no opposition, free mass media in Russia, part of the society is silent, the majority supports the Russian war. In addition, the Russian economy is “well afloat.”
“I think that the Russians will try to get some kind of ‘prize’. Kharkiv is, however, something different from Bakhmut and other similar cities. Yes, they could have targeted Odessa, but in Odessa the Ukrainians are in a much better position if you look at it from the point of view of defense,” Andzhan said. .
When asked why Russia chose a ground attack, the director of the Geopolitical Research Center explained that Kharkiv is being shelled all the time with airstrikes. A city cannot be taken from the air. Maybe the paratroopers could land, but the only way to take Kharkiv is with ground forces. A ground operation supported by air is usually prepared.
As for whether the attack on Kharkiv marks a new stage in Russia’s war against Ukraine, a visiting scholar at Harvard University said that a new stage has begun at the strategic level for some time now, namely that Ukraine is going on the defensive everywhere. The Ukrainians are building fortifications at the rear of the front, exploring options where to retreat even further. Andzhan concludes that “Putin feels like a horse” at the moment.
The director of the Geopolitical Research Center stated that Russia is currently on the offensive and this marks a new phase. Despite all the problems that Russia had, it has learned a lot from the Ukrainians, especially in the field of flying robots. Ukrainians were the ones who figured out how to adapt drones for combat use. Andzhan also called to take into account the fact that Russia has friends – when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un arrived in the Russian Far East, Putin told him – one old friend is better than two new ones.
The visiting scholar of Harvard University emphasized that Russia has reliable friends – North Korea, Iran, China, which, for example, do not supply lethal aid, but dual-use materials that help Russia maintain the reserves of its armed forces and to be able to produce armaments, including high-precision weapons . Anjan emphasized that North Korea supplies artillery, including ballistic missiles.
“Russia’s friends are a ‘club of authoritarian countries’, despite the fact that Russia’s friends are much poorer, the costs are also much lower. Imagine how much it costs in the USA to produce one tank or one artillery shell, and how much it costs in North Korea, where in fact free labor – people are living in hunger, working in shifts to supply the Russian armed forces?! With rice, flour and what military technology,” Andzhan noted.
He pointed out that it is a new and very dangerous phase. According to the expert, Russia will continue to attack the entire front line of Ukraine, both from the air and from the ground. The visiting researcher of Harvard University emphasized that the Black Sea is one of the sectors where Ukrainians have been very successful. There is an impression that Russia has not yet figured out how to confront the Ukrainian swimming robots, which have effectively destroyed Russian ships and “pushed” them away.
The expert predicted that air terror will certainly continue throughout Ukraine, as well as ground operations. Also, the relatively silent cyber war that is going on between Russia and Ukraine all the time, various types of intelligence operations, and assassination attempts will continue. More recently, another assassination attempt against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was foiled.
“I think there will be more and more of them. Russia will try to kill not only Zelensky, but also other Ukrainian officials. Let’s see what the Russians are doing with Russian traitors – in February, a Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine half a year ago was shot in Spain. Not only The Baltic states, but also others, have to reckon with various attacks on symbolic objects, possible incitement of people, cyber-attacks,” Andzhan said.
In summary, the visiting scholar at Harvard University emphasized that Russia is now on an all-out offensive, militarily in Ukraine and non-military in many parts of the world. If the worst case scenario happens and Ukraine falls, Moldova will follow. Andjan called to look at the situation in Georgia – in May, the ruling party “Georgian Dream” again submitted to the parliament the law on “foreign agents”, which the residents oppose. He emphasized that Russia has not only put a finger there, but also a hand. He concluded that Georgians are in a very difficult situation and many will face such pressure. According to the expert, Russia has recovered and will go forward with full power.
It has already been reported that the Russians have launched a ground attack in the Kharkiv region, where fighting continues, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced on Friday.
“Around 5 o’clock in the morning, the enemy tried to break through our defense line under the cover of armored vehicles,” the ministry said in a statement.
A high-ranking source in the Ukrainian army said that the Russians entered the territory of Ukraine to a depth of one kilometer.
Tags: Russia tests Ukrainian forces attacking Kharkiv region
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