In the midst of the hype, it’s time for a broader view – what does the expansion of AI mean for society? While no one can provide an accurate prediction of the future, a deeper understanding of the trajectories of technology and human development can enable us not only to adapt, but also to mitigate risks and take advantage of the opportunities presented.
From the Agrarian Revolution to Cognitive Automation
We rarely think about how technology has shaped our lives over the centuries, but it is precisely these technologies that have fundamentally changed society and the economy. So-called general purpose technologies (General Purpose Technologies or GPT) have played a decisive role in the transformation of national and global social and economic structures, bringing with them impressive productivity gains. AI is one such technology that is already shaping our future today.
Historical examples show the significant role of technology in the transformation of humanity. Around 9000-8000. gpm. humanity began cultivating plants, which facilitated the transition from a hunter-gatherer lifestyle to agriculture with new ways of organizing society and the economy. Animal domestication was an important step in increasing the efficiency of food production. Development of writing around 3400-3200. gpm. allowed people to record their knowledge, but the use of iron around 1200 BCE. contributed to the improvement of agriculture and the equipment of soldiers. Introduction of printing in the 16th century. and the steam engine in 1718 became the basis of the technological revolution. 19th and 20th centuries rapid industrial progress was accompanied by the development of railways, the use of internal combustion engines and electricity. 20th century in the second half, computers and the Internet marked the beginning of the era of information technology, while the development of biotechnology in 1994 opened new opportunities in medicine and agriculture.
Where are we going next? Klaus Schwab and other opinion leaders at the World Economic Forum say that AI is the key to the “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, which connects the physical, digital and biological worlds, creating significant changes in how we live, work and communicate with each other.
Observing the evolutionary pattern of technology, it might seem that everything is going according to the usual scenario – humanity continues its course and AI is just the next transformative technology in the development of civilization, the opportunities provided by which we will learn, but we will overcome the challenges.
But is everything so predictable?
Technologists, philosophers, historians such as Mustaf Suleiman, Sam Harris and Yuval Harari warn that this time is different, and the risks to civilization may become existential. A significant difference of AI from other technologies is that it can understand a person better than he himself and can make decisions for a person. Are we ready to accept that an emotionally neutral superintelligence could guide us in making decisions that we cannot even understand ourselves?
Sam Harris depicts the future interaction between humans and AI, comparing it to our current relationship with dogs, where we humans take on the role of the superintelligent being in this duo. Such a metaphor reveals surprising insights. It is the human who sees the bigger picture of the situation, for example in the case of a dangerous infection where the animal should be sacrificed first, not the human. Harris encourages us to consider that while AI will initially serve as a protector and helper, it could have access to more information and the ability to make decisions beyond human understanding.
Super-acceleration of collective learning
In my opinion, a monumental framework for insight into the potentially transformative power of AI is the concept of collective learning, as explained by historian and futurist David Christian. Collective learning is what distinguishes us humans from other living creatures and has allowed us to break through the evolutionary race. It is the ability to accumulate and share knowledge and experience – from language development and culture to mass media and the Internet in real time today. A simple example is mushrooming. A good mushroom picker will not experiment every time with a found mushroom in order to evaluate its usefulness in food. The experience of what is edible has been accumulated collectively and passed down through word of mouth, books and TV shows from generation to generation, but not so far in the future with digital vision in a smart device or contact lenses.
AI models, together with the collective accumulated data about the world and our skills to use the latest technologies, are on the road map to perform tasks that were completely unthinkable until recently. For example, in the treatment of complex diseases, AI could analyze hundreds of thousands of scientific studies looking for answers in biological and genetic data, conduct experiments in a virtual environment to develop and test new drugs. In business, an AI agent could be tasked with earning 100 million euros. AI itself could study demand and customer data, create popular products that precisely meet the needs of a select group of consumers, and place products on Amazon and other platforms with precisely targeted campaigns to achieve set sales and profit goals.
The Storytelling Revolution
On the other hand, the well-known historian and thinker Yuval Harari believes that the evolutionary competitiveness of humans is found in the ability to invent and believe in stories or fictions that allow us to cooperate on a global scale. These are not simple stories, but a belief in the ideas that shape our civilizations, from religions to ideologies. These are ideas that do not exist physically, but live in the mind and make people build pyramids, go to space, or, for example, believe in money and cryptocurrencies as a means of exchange, hearing about the advantages of these means from finance ministers and cryptoevangelists. Harari predicts that within the next decade, AI could take over the creation of stories from humans. As we can already see today, “ChatGPT” has practically no limits of imagination. With the right parameters, data, models and AI self-learning about what people like and excite, viable and brilliant stories, religions, political parties or product marketing communication plans could be created that will take over people’s minds.
The new world – superintelligence on demand
The previous industrial revolutions endowed mankind with massive mechanization, transforming physical labor and greatly increasing productivity. We have now crossed a new threshold – the primary domain of automation is mental, cognitive and creative functions. If the world is not affected by the collapse of digital systems as a result of major global threats, the current direction of AI development could radically change civilization. AI will create a completely transformed world for us in the coming decades.
I think it will be a world where the power of AI is not limited to the robot vacuum cleaner or the latest co-pilot in the computer we see today. Intelligence will be found and available around all things in the environment in our spheres of life and work. In this layer of intelligence, continuous simulations about small and big things will also take place, helping a person to make both everyday and grandiose future decisions, create new innovations and rapidly progress in science. This means that we will experience both positive growth and upheaval on a scale never seen before in history. Moving into the future will require not only learning the great benefits of technology, but also balancing the dangers and will become a challenge for all of us, both individually and collectively.
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