To protect the soldiers, you will have to retreat
If a week ago it was finally time to rejoice over the long-awaited and finally approved US aid to Ukraine, now the joy over the military aid is suppressed by hard news from the front line, which was also confirmed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, Oleksandr Sirsky.
The head of “Rochan Consulting”, the independent Polish consultant Konrads Muzika, who specializes in monitoring Russia and Belarus, even stated that the worst moment in the last two years has been reached at the front. The numerical superiority in the ranks of the invaders has led to an increase in the number of Russian attacks up to the level of March 2022.
Expert Kristine Bērzina’s column in the program “Fuse”
Security policy expert Kristīne Bērziņa.
Photo: Toms Šics / Latvian Radio
Kristīne Bērziņa, an expert on security policy, a researcher at the Marshall Fund in Washington, will highlight the most important events of the week in the context of the world and Latvia, as well as those that may have been missed in the mass of information, as well as give a comment on why they are important and what impact could be caused.
Muzika pointed out three main problems on the Ukrainian side: lack of ammunition, soldiers and fortifications.
“I agree with these assessments in principle, all three are very acute issues that have been developing for months. The question is how quickly Ukraine will be able to solve them now and which of them. Help is coming, air defense systems and the like [ieroči]it all adds up, and the first billion moved quickly, but the rest, of course, goes more slowly,” admitted Bērziņa.
All the billions promised by the US will go to Ukraine this year, but it won’t happen in a few days, so in terms of military shortage, the months of May and June will be the worst points for Ukraine, the security policy expert explained.
“Therefore, every news about the tactical and strategic loss of territory should be evaluated as something that is both an extremely gloomy report and at the moment simply expected. In Ukraine, on the front line, the question of whether to protect the soldiers and withdraw, thus losing territory. Taking into account that the number of mobilized, well-trained soldiers is the most difficult, worst problem for Ukraine, it is natural to retreat and lose territory,” Berziņa explained.
This is, of course, very difficult, because retreating and losing a particular city in order to protect your soldiers must be done in such a way that it does not become a whole wave of retreats that overwhelms the entire front line.
“We are talking about June, when the situation could improve. I don’t expect too much good news in May. Something can change significantly in June, so the goal is to hold on,” admitted Bērziņa.
Successfully bullied China’s biggest banks
Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West has imposed various economic sanctions against it. Well, it has been revealed that secondary sanctions have proven to be particularly effective when it comes to banks and companies cooperating with Russia.
The news agency “Reuters” has published a study, which concludes that, fearing American secondary sanctions, many Chinese banks no longer serve customers in Russia.
As a result, Chinese manufacturers have a very difficult life – in order for Russian customers to pay with them, the search for various detours has already become everyday.
“China currently supports and initiates various types of cooperation with Russia in the civil-military space, but the big Chinese banks, the four big commercial banks, are afraid of doing business with Russia, they are afraid of receiving money from Russia, because they are afraid of Western sanctions,” said Berziņa.
The security policy expert explained that a week ago US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was in China and spoke directly about the possible sanctions, trying to limit China’s aid to Russia.
“During the last month, it has been much more difficult for Chinese companies to cooperate economically with Russian companies. It is difficult to receive money, payment for what is sent. Of course, a lot can be pushed underground, and there are also banks and companies in China that are not active in the world markets , and therefore it would be impossible to introduce sanctions against such companies or banks, but it is interesting and important to see that, nevertheless, the great threat of sanctions against the largest Chinese banks is significant and also limits Russia’s freedom to develop its economy in cooperation with China,” Bērziņa assessed.
US controversial decisions
At the same time, the US treasury has issued a document that allows cooperation with Russian banks and allows them to carry out transactions related to the energy sector. This exemption from sanctions is set until November 1, a few days before the US presidential election, with the possibility of an extension after it.
“It doesn’t look good. Recently, the prices of both diesel and gasoline have been rising in Russia. There have been many drone and other attacks on oil refineries in Russia, and in the last week the price of diesel fuel in Russia has risen by as much as 10%. In the last six months, gasoline prices have risen by 20 %,” the context was provided by Bērziņa.
The security policy expert pointed out that it is therefore in Russia’s interest to expand its export capabilities in order to fill its wallets and continue the war in Ukraine.
“Naturally, there should be such a reaction from the West that Russia exports less, but if pain occurs in connection with oil prices in Russia, then this pain can also occur in all other countries, because the global fuel markets are such that it is usually not possible to limit the pain in one country It’s really possible. At the moment, it’s at the level of speculation, because this is new news, but it looks like sanctions are being eased for Russian banks in order to ease the possible rise in gasoline and other fuel prices,” explained Berziņa.
Of course, the adoption of these issues is significantly influenced by the upcoming elections in the USA and the fight for voters, many of whom probably think that the price of fuel at home is more important than Ukraine’s victory in the war.
“It might be a calculus that allows for this kind of sanctions policy change. Is it smart or not? It’s certainly not pretty. Whether it’s smart is maybe a little bit of a different question, but it certainly feels very strange in light of everything else. foreign policy. But on a broader scale, the main thing is defense and maintaining democratic values and a strong foreign policy position in all major defense issues,” said Bērziņa.
Perhaps the US eases these sanctions in order to keep oil prices at a normal level at home and, therefore, the satisfaction of its voters with the current foreign policy, said the security policy expert.
“Is this the right way – well, I think many, especially in Ukraine, will have very big questions about that,” Berziņa admitted.
