20 years after his father’s death, Kadyrov runs Chechnya as his kingdom / Article

Ramzan Kadyrov is only 47 years old, but in the last couple of years his health problems have become obvious. Russian independent media reports that he is suffering from a serious illness.

IN SHORT:

• On May 9, 2004, Chechen leader Ahmad Kadyrov was killed in an explosion.
• After his death, Ahmad’s son Ramzan Kadyrov gradually took power in Chechnya.
• The Kremlin has backed Kadyrov, who has taken control of Chechnya’s economy and politics.
• In exchange for ensuring peace, Moscow gives Chechnya billions of euros every year.
• Kadyrov has eradicated all competition; his rivals have been killed or fled Chechnya.
• Ramzan’s deteriorating health raises questions about a possible successor.

Putin and Kadyrov symbiosis

Ramzan’s father, the then president of Chechnya, Akhmad Kadyrov, moved to the next level quickly, when on May 9, 2004, during the “Victory Day” celebrations, his opponents set off an explosion at the football stadium in Grozny.

Ahmad Kadyrov and several other people were killed in it, dozens of people were injured. Chechen militia commander Shamil Basayev, who was killed in another explosion a few years later, took responsibility for organizing the explosion.

The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, immediately expressed his condolences to Kadyrov’s relatives and received Ramzan Kadyrov in the Kremlin, who came to the meeting with the owner of the Kremlin dressed in a tracksuit.

This meeting marked the beginning of the cooperation between Putin and Kadyrov, which has been going on for 20 years.

Putin has provided Chechnya with generous funding from the Russian federal budget, but Kadyrov has fulfilled his promise to “bring order to Chechnya” by ending the armed struggle against Moscow’s rule.

True, human rights defenders sharply criticize Kadyrov’s regime, which ignores any human rights norms and persecutes opponents of the ruling clan.

From an enemy of Moscow to an ally

On the anniversary of his father’s death, Ramzan Kadyrov published a tribute to Ahmad on social networks on Thursday. “You united the Chechen society and decisively put an end to the severe trials that our nation endured for many centuries. Today, I proudly continue the path you started, along which you left as a martyr [islāma moceklis],” Ramzan writes in a tribute to his father.

Ahmad Kadyrov was a Chechen cleric and army commander who fought alongside Chechen independence supporters against Russian rule during the First Chechen War in the mid-1990s.

“There are one million Chechens and 150 million Russians in the world. If each Chechen kills 150 Russians, we will win,” Ahmad Kadyrov said at the time.

But over time, his position changed. In 1999, Putin came to power in Russia and started the second Chechen war. Kadyrov refused to fight against Moscow in this war. As a representative of a relatively moderate branch of Islam, he was concerned that the majority of influence in the Chechen resistance movement had been gained by Islamic extremists who preached more radical ideas.

Moscow took the opportunity to lure Kadyrov to its side. Many Chechens considered him a traitor, but Moscow ensured that Kadyrov was elected president of Chechnya in the fall of 2003. His reign did not last long, however, because on May 9 of the following year, Kadyrov was killed in an explosion.

Ramzan has exterminated all competitors

Under the senior leadership of Kadyrov, Chechnya had already taken a course towards the current model of relations with Moscow. Both sides pledged to end the armed conflict that had claimed huge casualties during the two Chechen wars. Chechnya remained part of the Russian Federation, but gained “de facto” independence as Moscow promised not to interfere in the Chechens’ internal affairs and to generously finance the reconstruction of the war-ravaged land.

In 2004, when his father died, Ramzan Kadyrov could not yet officially become the leader of Chechnya, because the law stated that the president of Chechnya must be at least 30 years old, and Ramzan was only 27 years old at the time.

Therefore, he served as the deputy prime minister and prime minister of Chechnya for some time, but in 2007, when he had reached the age of 30, he was officially confirmed as the president of Chechnya.

The power of Kadyrov Jr. was not initially unlimited, because at that time several competing clans were fighting for influence in Chechnya.

But little by little, all of Kadyrov’s competitors were destroyed one by one or were forced to flee abroad. In a similar way, the Kadyrov regime dealt not only with the leaders of rival gangs, but also with anyone who dared to criticize the ruling power in Chechnya.

Kadyrov’s regime is also suspected of several high-profile political murders committed in Russia, for example, Chechen criminals were linked to the murders of journalist Alla Politkovska and Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.

Chechens in Ukraine are not eager to die for Putin’s “Russian world”

The leader of Chechnya, Kadyrov, has publicly sworn unlimited loyalty to Putin, the master of the Kremlin, many times. It is not for nothing that the results of the Russian presidential elections in Chechnya have always been fabricated in such a way as to show huge support for Putin: this year, too, he received 99% of the votes in the “presidential elections” in Chechnya.

Kadyrov and his fighters have already actively supported the war started by Putin in Ukraine. True, this support has often been limited to loud announcements rather than real contributions on the battlefield.

Chechen fighters, contrary to Kadyrov’s claims, are by no means eager to go to war in Ukraine to implement Putin’s nightmarish ideas about the expansion of the “Russian world”.

“I survived two wars against Moscow not so that I could die fighting in Ukraine on Putin’s behalf,” a Chechen soldier who refused to go to Ukraine told “The Wall Street Journal”.

The trust of the Chechens was bought for a lot of money

Kadyrov’s trust in Putin’s regime has been bought with money, a lot of money. Funding provided by the Kremlin accounts for more than 80% of Chechnya’s budget. Kadyrov said that Chechnya receives more than 300 billion rubles (around three billion euros) from the Russian federal budget per year.

With this money, the Kadyrov clan managed to rebuild the war-torn capital Grozny, which is now decorated with skyscrapers and grand mosques. Kadyrov himself and his associates also got huge wealth at the expense of Moscow.

The Kremlin turns a blind eye to widespread corruption in Chechnya, as Putin’s clan in Moscow operates in a similar manner.

Kadyrov has admitted that without Moscow’s support, Chechnya could not survive even for a couple of months, because the region has neither oil, gas, nor electricity.

“Putin’s support and money helped Kadyrov turn from zero to a hero, but at the same time it made him vulnerable and completely dependent,” concludes Ekaterina Sokirjanska, a researcher of North Caucasus politics, in a conversation with “The Wall Street Journal”.

Given Kadyrov’s huge role in Chechen politics, news of Ramzan’s poor health has caused alarm in the Kremlin.

He has put on a lot of weight in recent years; speaks and moves with difficulty. There have often been speculations that Kadyrov has serious problems with kidney function. The exiled newspaper “Novaya Gazeta Eiropa” reported this year that Kadyrov has been suffering from pancreatic necrosis since 2019.

Kadyrov and his representatives have tried to dispel these rumors by publishing videos in which Kadyrov can be seen in various sports activities.

Ramzan’s son is still too young for the role of leader

Talks about Kadyrov’s poor state of health have also raised another question: who will take his place if Ramzan dies or becomes incapacitated?

Kadyrov has not been shy about handing out posts to his associates and family members, for example, Ramzan’s daughter Aishat was appointed as Chechnya’s Minister of Culture.

Public activities show that Ramzan himself is preparing one of his sons, Adam, who was appointed head of the presidential security service last year, for the role of his successor. Adams has also already received Chechnya’s highest award: the title of Hero of Chechnya.

But there is a problem: Adam Kadyrov is currently only 16 years old, so it is clear that in the event of his father’s death, he would hardly be able to assume the responsibilities of Chechnya’s leader.

Adams made headlines last year when a video surfaced online showing the young martial artist beating a Russian man accused of burning a Koran in a detention center.

“Novaya Gazeta Europa” writes that the Kremlin considers Apti Alaudinov, the commander of the Chechen militia, who was recently appointed to an influential position in Moscow, to be Kadyrov’s possible successor in the event of his death.

However, there would certainly be other contenders for the position of the leader of Chechnya, and in the case of inter-clan fighting, the idea maintained by the Putin regime that Moscow has succeeded in “fixing Chechnya” could quickly fade away.