Indiana women vs South Carolina Sweet 16 prediction for March Madness

ALBANY, NY – Indiana women’s basketball is headed to the Sweet 16 for the third time in four seasons, but the Hoosiers have as tough of a draw as you can get going into the NCAA tournament’s second weekend.

After IU defeated No. 5 seed Oklahoma, 75-68, on Monday night at Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers’ attention quickly turned to top overall seed South Carolina.

MARCH MADNESS: What time does Indiana vs. South Carolina play in the Sweet 16 bracket?

The Gamecocks (32-0) have skated through the tournament so far with wins over No. 16 Presbyterian, 91-36, in the first round, and No. 8 North Carolina, 88-41, in the Round of 32.

Here’s what to know about one of the most formidable teams in the nation:

South Carolina women are favorites to win the national title

The Gamecocks, with their undefeated record and seven wins against top-25 opponents, are heavy favorites to win the NCAA championship. Fox Sports reported South Carolina’s odds at -150 as of Monday morning. According to the NCAA, 37.5% of people who filled out brackets picked South Carolina to win — Iowa was the next highest at 27.3%.

Under coach Dawn Staley, the Gamecocks have won two national championships in the past seven years (2017, 2022) and been to the Final Four in five of the past eight tournaments, including the past three in a row.

South Carolina is a blistering 68-1 over the past two seasons — its only loss came to Iowa in the 2023 Final Four.

Gamecocks graduated entire starting lineup last season

South Carolina lost all five of its starters last season, with three of them — including No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston to the Indiana Fever — getting drafted into the WNBA. Two bench players were also drafted into the league.

Staley had to start fresh this season with eight total players graduating. She went from an experienced roster to a young one. But based on South Carolina’s record, she had no problem rebuilding — both from the transfer portal and her own roster.

Staley brought four players off her 2022-23 bench into the starting lineup: Chloe Kitts, Raven Johnson, Kamilla Cardoso and Bree Hall. Staley also utilized the transfer portal, bringing Te-Hina Pao Pao from Oregon into the starting lineup.

The Gamecocks have firepower coming off the bench, too — their second-leading scorer, freshman MiLaysia Fulwiley, averages 12.2 points per game.

Kamilla Cardoso will pose a big threat to IU’s Mackenzie Holmes

South Carolina’s big will have a four-inch height advantage on IU senior center Mackenzie Holmes. Cardoso, who stands at 6-7, is a major threat in the paint for the Gamecocks. She is a finalist for the Naismith National Defensive Player of the Year, and she can make a difference on both sides of the court.

The senior from Brazil, who is projected to go in the first round of the 2024 WNBA draft, is South Carolina’s leading scorer at 13.9 points per game on 58.4% shooting. She also averages 9.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game.

Cardoso’s sheer size advantage will make one of IU’s most potent scoring plays — a Holmes layup in the paint — hard to come by.

Prediction: South Carolina 85, Indiana 70

IU might simply be outmatched in this game. The Gamecocks, along with a size advantage, have a potent bench rotation that is just as efficient as the starting lineup.

IU will hope to get Cardoso into foul trouble in order to get Holmes some breathing room. Still, even if Cardoso becomes unavailable, South Carolina can bring 6-5 Sakima Walker off the bench or 6-3 forward Ashlyn Watkins to guard Holmes with a similar sizable threat.

South Carolina shoots 49% from the field and 39% from 3-point range as a team, which will match IU’s shooting abilities. The Gamecocks not only have an extra day of rest (they played their round of 32 game on Sunday), but South Carolina’s starters barely had to play the second half of its 47-point second-round win. —Chloe Peterson, IndyStar

Prediction: South Carolina 82, Indiana 63

Indiana can’t afford an off night shooting the ball like it had against Oklahoma. It also can’t afford a similar type of slow start that proved costly in losses to Stanford and Iowa.

The Hoosiers will have to play a near-perfect 40 minutes to keep their season alive. It’s not impossible, but … South Carolina just looks like a buzz saw right now. They run about nine deep, have size and don’t seem to have any weaknesses. —Mike Niziolek, Herald-Times