The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be underdogs when they face the Purdue Boilermakers in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
The Zags (27-7, 14-2 WCC) are listed as 5.5-point underdogs according to sisportsbook.com, their largest spread against them this season and just the fifth game they won’t be favored to win. They covered the spread twice as underdogs before (89-85 win at Kentucky, 70-57 win at Saint Mary’s) though they’re 0-2 against the spread and straight-up when playing as the underdogs in neutral site games (73- 63 loss to Purdue at the Maui Invitational, 76-63 loss to UConn at Seattle).
Overall, Gonzaga is 14-15 ATS according to covers.com and has covered in five of its last six games, including both of its NCAA Tournament games. The point total has gone over in five of its last seven games, with the only exceptions being both games against Saint Mary’s in the West Coast Conference regular season finale and the league tournament championship game. According to teamrankings.com, the point total has hit the under in three of the four games in which the Zags have been underdogs.
The winning formula has been on the offensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs are 21-0 when they score 80 or more points and 21-0 when they shoot 50% or better from the field. They’re also 24-0 when they knock down 30% or more of their 3-point attempts and 20-1 when they make six or more triples.
On the other side, the Boilermakers have an elite offense of their own, spearheaded by the nation’s leading scorer in Zach Edey. Purdue leads the country in 3-point field goal percentage (40.9%) and assists per game (18.8) while ranking second in rebounding margin (11.5). Per KenPom, Matt Painter’s team is No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Purdue is 17-13-1 ATS this season and 2-0 in the NCAA Tournament so far. No team has been more dominant to start the postseason — its +67 point margin between its wins over Grambling and Utah State is the best in the field. Much of that has to do with Edey’s efforts, as he’s averaging 26.5 points, 17.5 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game in the tournament.
The Boilermakers are 6-2-1 ATS in neutral site games, which includes a 73-63 win over the Zags at the Maui invitational in November. Gonzaga went 6-of-32 from distance (0-13 on 3-point attempts in the second half) and was outscored 43-28 after holding onto a 5-point lead at halftime.
Other notable betting trends:
– Purdue is 7-0 straight-up against the rest of the Sweet 16 teams (Gonzaga is 0-2)
– The Bulldogs are 0-9 all-time against No. 1 seed.
– No. 1 seeds have won 19 of their last 24 games in the Sweet 16 but are just 1-4 in the past two seasons.
– Round of 32 favorites went 15-1 straight-up and 11-5 ATS
– Favorites are 30-22 ATS in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, the best mark since 2008.
Gonzaga vs. Purdue Betting Odds
Check out the latest betting odds for this matchup per SI Sportsbook.
Money Line: Purdue (-250)
Spread: Purdue -5.5 (-111)
Over/Under: 154.5 (-125)
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