Heather Rolfe unpacks British Future’s latest Immigration Attitudes Tracker. She highlights that when it comes to migration for work the public favors addressing shortages at all skill levels, rather than just focusing on attracting people for highly skilled roles.
Recent years have seen unusually high levels of net migration, leading the government to seek ways of reducing entry to the UK. Aside from asylum, migration for work has been top of the government’s list for making reductions. And in an election year, the government will be anticipating that these changes will be supported by the public and boost their performance at the ballot box.
But how well do current crackdowns match public attitudes on migration for work? And how might political parties respond to public preference on this key area of migration policy?
Three of the five policy changes announced by the government in December 2023 relate to work visas, including the right to bring dependents and salary levels for skills visas and for jobs on the Shortage Occupation List. The public is unlikely to be aware of the details of these changes. However, many will have seen press coverage about record net migration and pledges from the government and opposition that it should be reduced.
Around half of the public (52%) support reducing immigration numbers overall, according to new findings from the British Future/Ipsos Immigration Attitudes Tracker – a small increase from the last tracker in August 2023. Four in ten don’t want reductions, preferring numbers to remain at current levels (23%) or to increase (17%). However, people find it hard to decide what migration they would cut. This applies particularly to migration for work, where public support increases in some sectors and occupations.
As in previous waves of the tracker, most people would like numbers of migrant doctors and nurses to increase and only one in six favor reductions. Support for recruiting migrant care workers and seasonal agricultural workers, by increasing numbers or keeping them the same, is also strong.
Widespread support, from both Labor and Conservative voters, for migration to health and social care roles reflects public priorities: for tracker respondents, the NHS currently ranks as the most important election issue, selected by 61%. Immigration is much lower at 37%. Views on migration for work in construction, hospitality and agriculture reflect judgments about economic importance, and awareness of labor and skills shortages in these sectors.
Comparison with our August 2023 tracker finds that overall attitudes to migration in these occupations have remained fairly stable. However, Labor voters are more likely to support increases than they were last August, and Conservative supporters less so. At the same time, there is no majority among Conservative supporters for reducing numbers in any of the occupations listed.
The tracker also asked whether the government’s priority should be to attract people for highly skilled roles, which would be in line with its emphasis on the ‘brightest and best’, or to address shortages at all skill levels.
The second of these options is twice as popular as attracting highly skilled migrants. This is supported across all demographic groups, but more strongly by older than younger people. There is some divergence by political allegiance, with more support among Labor supporters for addressing shortages at all levels, but it is still the most popular choice among Conservatives too.
Previous research has found that people are more positive towards migrants with high levels of education and in highly skilled roles. However, responses to the tracker questions about occupations, sectors and policy priorities suggest that it is economic or social need, rather than skill, that is most important to the public.
Public preferences reflect both wider current concerns and changing perceptions of the contribution of migration. It isn’t among the top three issues for deciding how to vote this year: immigration ranks fourth – below the NHS, inflation/cost of living and ‘managing the economy/economic situation’.
Top 10 issues for the public in the election
| Healthcare/NHS/hospitals | 61% |
| Inflation/rising cost of living | 56% |
| Managing the economy/economic situation | 39% |
| Immigration | 37% |
| Public services in general | 32% |
| Crime and anti-social behaviour/law and order | 31% |
| Protecting the natural environment/climate change | 29% |
| Poverty/inequality | 29% |
| Housing | 28% |
| Lack of faith in politicians/system of government | 28% |
| Taxation | 28% |
Question: Looking ahead to the next general election, which, if any issues, do you think will be very important to you in helping you to decide which party to vote for?
People see the health of the economy and migration as related: British Future research in 2022 found most people believe that migrants help economic recovery (53%) rather than damage it by taking away jobs from British workers (23%). Back in 2012 these figures were almost the reverse at 24% and 55%.
Attitudes to migration more generally have become more positive over time, with economic contribution having the strongest influence: awareness of the role of migrants in key services during the pandemic influenced more than half of those who said they changed their mind between 2016 and 2022; for 42% it was discussions about how much migrants contribute to the UK.
Conservative and Labor politicians face different pressures in developing workable immigration policies while meeting voter preferences. The current government’s supporters are more likely to see immigration as a key election issue and to be more in favor of reducing numbers. Meanwhile, attitudes of Labor voters to migration for work have remained positive, despite high net migration figures and political and media debate about reductions.
The latest tracker findings indicate that the Labor Party in particular may gain support from strategies which link immigration to job growth and recovery, and that emphasize all skills, not just the ‘brightest and best’. Presenting migration and investing in local people as an ‘either or’ choice is less likely to resonate with the public than one which argues that both are necessary for economic recovery and growth.
By Dr Heather Rolfe, Director of Research, British Future.
