Russia’s “political elite” does not expect “unpredictable, global and dramatic” changes in the country during Vladimir Putin’s new presidential term.
According to the independent Russian publication Meduza, citing sources in the Kremlin, the Russian government and United Russia, the repression against the undesirables will continue, but this is quite predictable.
“This is a country in a state of war that lives under the slogan ‘Everything for victory.’ More precisely, the president would like it to live like that. There is no place here for dissidents, gays and so on. Everything is subordinated to the war,” commented a source close to the Kremlin.
Sources say that the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall will not significantly affect the political and military processes in Russia.
“Some new contours” of the Russian political system can appear only after the end of the invasion of Ukraine – or at least after the conclusion of some kind of truce. While there is a war, there is no point in waiting for any changes,” says the interlocutor.
All Meduza sources are convinced that Putin intends to continue the war. However, their assessments of what goals he now sets in this regard differ. Thus, one of the interlocutors close to the Kremlin believes that after the failed counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces, Putin “felt the weakness of Ukraine and is ready to go to victory – even to Kiev – and he doesn’t care what the price is.”
“If mobilization is necessary, he will announce it. If it is necessary to divert the economy even more to the war, he will direct it. He acts on principle,” says one of the sources.
Another interlocutor close to the Kremlin, on the contrary, believes that the Russian high command sets itself “more realistic goals”, namely the capture of Kharkiv and the gradual termination of the “operation” after that.
According to Meduza’s sources “in the Russian elite”, senior officials are confident that the Russian army is capable of capturing Kharkiv, but further progress deeper into Ukraine will be “difficult”.
“This is also a symbolic victory. A city with one million inhabitants, where there are many Russian speakers,” says one of the interlocutors.
At the same time, all sources note that they have no information that a decision on a large-scale attack on Kharkiv has already been made. However, they agree that this is a “very likely scenario” that could theoretically require a new wave of mobilization.
