According to analysts, Russian forces are taking advantage of Ukraine’s lack of ammunition and the inability of the Ukrainian armed forces to engage in sufficient combat against artillery.
Ukraine-based Frontelligence Insight reported on February 1 that Russian forces previously established stationary artillery firing positions for a long period from late 2022 to early 2023, when a shortage of ammunition limited Ukraine’s ability to counter enemy artillery. “Frontelligence Insight” reports that Russian forces began to concentrate their artillery in a similar way in January 2024, indicating that Ukrainian forces are again short of artillery ammunition.
According to the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Ukrainian forces can occasionally engage Russian artillery, but generally lack sufficient ammunition to effectively counter enemy artillery.
Also, many of Ukraine’s drones do not have sufficient range to attack Russian artillery deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the front line.
“ISW continues to assess that the lack of artillery and delays in Western security assistance will create uncertainty in Ukraine’s operational plans and likely force Ukrainian forces to conserve materiel, which may force Ukrainian forces to make difficult decisions about prioritizing certain sectors of the front,” the analysts conclude.