How long will this 61 billion USD big aid last for Ukraine, how quickly will it be delivered?
Let’s start with the fact that time is not measured in monetary units, so it is impossible to say how long it will last. At the moment, we also don’t know what specifically is in this package. We know the general breakdown – 23 billion is earmarked for a section called “US Armament Replacement”. “Translating” it into Latvian – US units will return what they have in their units to Ukraine, and new equipment will be produced instead. This is the part that the Ukrainian army will receive very soon, very quickly, because we already see in Rzeszów, a city in Poland, where there is a main supply center on the territory of Poland for Ukraine, there are already formed columns, there are cars on trailers, hundreds of Bradley fighting vehicles . The trailers are ready to go ahead, to Ukraine. The rest of the details are hard to say yet.
The second section is the production of new, modern weapon systems for Ukraine. That’s $14 billion. Yes, they are good, they are anti-aircraft defense systems, but again, translated into Latvian, production. It will take time, it will not be an immediate effect, Ukraine will not get these systems immediately.
Another 11 billion is earmarked for the Ukrainian security and defense program, which includes American instructors stationed in Ukraine, American advisers, training and preparation of Ukrainian forces.
The fourth part is eight billion of so-called non-military expenses – this is money given to Ukraine to maintain this country, so that they are able to function at all, pay pensions, salaries, including salaries of soldiers, and support the operation of their country. We know that the income for Ukraine is what it is, their industry is ruined. Therefore, external payments are very important for them to be able to fight the occupiers at all.
The situation at the front is very difficult, as you talk about in your reviews. We want Ukraine not to lose this war. Will these weapons help at least hold the current positions?
It should be understood that this effect will not be immediate. If we see this aid package, 23 billion is this technique that is currently in Poland, then its effect will be very fast. There was always a question about what happens to the reserves that the Ukrainians are training, initially they were about ten brigades. Now those brigades are down to five, because they have already sent five to the front line, but the question is always where they will get the equipment. Now it is clear, this is the equipment meant for these brigades. But the moment when the brigade receives equipment and fights on the front line is not short, and now it is difficult to predict how quickly the Ukrainian forces will manage to do this. Yes, the situation is currently difficult in a couple of places, especially near the settlement Ocherekine, this is the direction of Avdijivka. It is very sad there, but it must be understood – if the battle is lost, it is lost. A lost battle is not a lost war. That means retreating, regrouping, fighting the next day. This is what needs to be done. This spring, this summer will be extremely difficult for the Ukrainian army, and we will see what the outcome of the battle will be.
How do you see the situation with Russian resources? They have mobilized the economy, are they able to replace at least as much as they are losing?
You won’t like my answer – generally yes. If we come to a war of resources, resources against resources – Ukraine loses. Ukraine is smaller and has less equipment and fewer people. This means that this war must enter another phase. Because, simply measuring tank against tank, soldier against soldier – the outcome of the war is already clear. There must be other ways of warfare, the use of other tactics that will lead Ukraine to victory.
So you see that Russia is ready to continue the war again and again?
Yes. Two or three more years.
What do you see as the potential outcome of the war? It will be peace talks, where Ukraine will be forced to give up territories?
I was asked such a question once, and I couldn’t even answer it immediately, what to offer to Ukraine. But then the answer came to me later – we, Latvia, already had an agreement behind us once (meaning 1945, when after the end of the Second World War Latvia was left under Soviet occupation against our will, which lasted until 1990), where our territory was divided . Therefore, I would not want the presidents or leaders of any other country to decide what to do with their territory instead of Ukraine. It is their task, their responsibility, and only they can make that decision. Everything is in the hands of the Ukrainian leadership, only they and the people of Ukraine have to decide what to do with the territory of Ukraine.
The world was just shocked by the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel – during which Iran launched a large number of the most advanced missiles, but Western equipment and technology shot everything down. That’s the good news?
That’s the good news, yes. The good news is that we have very good intelligence systems to help detect all these threats. At the same time, it must be understood that even such a technologically advanced and militarily powerful country as Israel could not repel this attack alone if it did not have the help of its allies – the United States, Great Britain, and France. A French ship also took part, as well as some Arab countries that also joined in repelling this attack. So that today no country is strong enough to go to war on its own. As we can see, even the supposedly strong Russia – without the support of North Korea and Iran, it was quite thin.
About F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine. Maybe they are already there? Do you agree that this is already the moment when Ukraine will really have these fighters?
I think yes. This issue has gone too far, gone too far. There will definitely be destroyers. Now there are other countries that will get involved. At first it was only Denmark and the Netherlands, now Belgium and others express their desire to transfer their fighters to Ukraine. Therefore, it will rather be a question of how many pilots Ukraine has to be able to put them on these planes. If we look at the information that has come out about the alleged American gifts, including the missiles and all the other equipment, there are actually two very interesting lines – one is the airfield equipment, and the other is the bombs. The Russians have FAB bombs, the Americans also have such systems. Such bombs are listed. Such bombs would not be there if it was intended for the remaining MIG or SU aircraft that the Ukrainian army has. They are definitely meant for F-16 fighters!
We want Ukraine to keep the territories they had after 1991 – Crimea, Donbass, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson. Do you see that this can happen without the direct military involvement of NATO countries? The French are active in the public sphere.
I would not like to speculate on this issue, but it is clear that Ukraine will not be able to do it alone. Ukraine will need support, what kind of support and in what form – let’s not guess yet.
Is there a possibility that NATO could get involved in this war?
NATO most likely not, but there is always the option “coalition of will” (coalition of will – author) – countries that think alike and want to act alike. That option always exists. It is possible that we will experience something like that.
Be the first to find out what interesting has happened in Latvia and the world by joining us on the Telegram or Whatsapp channel
Tags: Delivery F16s Ukrainian army inevitable military assistance
-
