Has Putin contributed the most to Moldova’s integration into the European Union? / Script

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Latvia and Moldova are separated by thousands of kilometers, but both countries were part of the Soviet Union for half a century, which they were illegally included in during World War II. In 1991, Latvia and Moldova gained independence, which opened up new opportunities and also created a series of challenges. Latvia will soon celebrate the 20th anniversary of its accession to the EU, but Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, received an invitation to start negotiations on joining the bloc only last December.

The President of Moldova, Maija Sandu, has set the goal of joining the EU by 2030. It will be difficult to implement, because the country needs to carry out a series of reforms, for example in the field of justice and in the fight against corruption. And a serious obstacle to Moldova’s EU integration is the separatist region of Transnistria, where a few thousand Russian military personnel are still stationed.

EU Ambassador: The influence of Russian disinformation on part of the society is very great

EU Ambassador to Moldova Jānis Mazeiks did not hide that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine significantly accelerated Moldova’s EU integration process.

“Two and a half years ago, no one thought that Moldova could become a candidate country. No one thought about it even in January 2022. Everything changed on February 24, 2022, because it was followed by the desire of the European Union member states and the political leadership of the European Union to support Ukraine and the desire to support “Moldova as the country most affected by the war. And one of the ways of support was to promote faster European integration of these countries,” the diplomat recalled.

Optimism about Moldova’s European integration process is enhanced by the fact that the government and president are in power in the country, who are determined to do everything necessary for Moldova to become a full member of the EU as soon as possible, Mazeik said.

“Unlike Latvia, where the idea of ​​a return to Europe was always present – no matter what the governments were, here the governments have changed their orientation quite often. This reflects the fact that the society is not completely homogeneous either. In other words, here there is really a part of the society which still believes that it is necessary to strengthen relations with Russia. If we look at the reality, then there is less and less basis for it economically, because for 20 years the European Union has been Moldova’s biggest market. Now it has become practically impossible to trade with Russia, however, Russian disinformation and the influence of propaganda on part of the society is very great,” said the EU ambassador.

Russia has always tried to prevent Moldova from getting closer to Europe

In Moldova, discussions about the country’s accession to the EU have been going on since 2005, and Russia has always tried to prevent Moldova from getting closer to Europe. This was confirmed by Moscow’s decision to increase the price of gas and ban the import of Moldovan wine, which was painful for the economy of the small country.

Economist and former member of the Moldovan parliament Vyacheslav Joniče joked in an interview with Latvian Radio that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has contributed the most to Moldova’s integration into the EU. “Putin reminds us every day that it is better for Moldova to join the European Union. Currently, we sell less than 5% of our total exports to Russia. We actually have no relations with Russia anymore,” Jonice said.

Despite this, a significant part of Moldovan society still sympathizes with Russia, Yoniče said.

“The people of Moldova can be divided into three groups. About 30% are completely European and anti-Russian. These people believe that the European Union is good, but Russia is thieves, criminals and so on. 30% are supporters of Russia, who believe in Russian values, and they are against the European Union. But 40% want to be friends with everyone. They don’t dislike Russia, they don’t dislike Putin, but they don’t support the war in Ukraine. Most of these people have become supporters of the European Union. But the danger is that that these 40% of people can change their position very easily,” explained the expert, “It turns out that more than 60% of Moldovans support the European Union, but I would be very careful, because half of them are very sophisticated supporters of Europe and can leave at any moment in the opposite direction if something goes wrong.”

With pro-Kremlin messages, Moscow is trying to bring Moldova back into Russia’s orbit of influence

Although Moldovan authorities have banned major Kremlin propaganda television channels and blocked dozens of online outlets since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian disinformation and fake news continue to reach a significant portion of the country’s more than 3 million residents. This is also complemented by openly pro-Kremlin messages from the media owned by local oligarchs, whose aim is to destabilize the situation in the country and reduce public trust in the government, disinformation expert Andrejs Kureraru said.

“We are talking mainly about propaganda that is directed against the European Union and NATO. The most common are the messages that the European Union does not really want to welcome us, that we will sell our sovereignty to the European Union and become a less independent country. But there are also targeted disinformation campaigns. against the government, justice system reforms and political reforms aimed at promoting political accountability and transparency of decision-making in the country,” Kureraru said.

A Kremlin plan was recently leaked that describes how to destabilize Moldova and bring it back into Russia’s orbit by promoting separatist ideas and spreading pro-Kremlin messages.

Kureraru believes that in this respect, Moldova has many similarities with the Baltic states: “We also have a small but active minority of Russian speakers who are still connected to Soviet mythology, with the belief that promoting relations with Russia is the most important thing that Moldova can do, that our pursuit of the West is not the right path. They were less visible in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine due to the morale effects of the war, as well as the fear of the war reaching Chisinau. But now they are reactivating and we are hearing more and more voices , who say we should rethink our foreign policy and act pragmatically, which they say would mean staying in this limbo between East and West.”

In order to reduce the impact of disinformation and foreign attempts to interfere in the country’s internal affairs, the Moldovan government, in cooperation with the EU, is creating a Center for Strategic Communication and Countering Disinformation. But late last year, Moldova’s parliament approved a new national security strategy that for the first time names Russia as one of the main threats to the country’s national security. The strategy also emphasizes Moldova’s closer cooperation with the EU, the United States and NATO, although the country is not yet going to give up its neutrality status stipulated in the constitution and join the military alliance.

This year may be decisive for the course of Moldova’s foreign policy

This year may decide the future direction of Moldova’s foreign policy. Moldova’s presidential elections will be held in October, in which the head of state Sandu will fight for the second term of the presidency. She wants a referendum on Moldova’s EU membership to take place at the same time as the elections. The question of the referendum and whether the vote will only be advisory or have legal consequences is not yet known. However, it is clear that Russia will try to influence the outcome of the vote with the help of local pro-Kremlin forces.

Economist Joniči is not only worried about the fact that only about a third of the Moldovan population are staunch supporters of the EU, but also that the pro-Kremlin parties are not talking about the referendum at all.

“I am concerned that they have a plan. And it is a nasty plan. I would be very careful about this. Because, imagine that the referendum could not go as planned. Then there are two problems. First, the political message of Moldova. Second , which will take place in the presidential run-off. It could turn out to be a ‘black swan’ that can play a bad joke in the run-off. I’m not saying it will, but I would be very, very careful. So what worries me the most is why all the pro-European parties support the referendum, but the pro-Russian parties are silent,” emphasized Joniče.

The Moldovan government has six more months to convince citizens that they should vote for the country’s EU membership, which would boost not only Moldova’s economic growth but also security amid a devastating war in neighboring Ukraine.